2013-14 Kansas Jayhawks: Rotation and lineups
Kansas had a quartet of future NBA players in their freshman class. Should they have had a even bigger role than they did?
This is the third of 4 articles about the 2013-14 Kansas Jayhawks. Read the intro article to the team here, and my analysis of the Jayhawks’s best and worst games here. Upcoming are:
· Offensive and defensive style (Feb 1)
As I mentioned in my introductory article, the 2013-14 Kansas Jayhawks had a near-unprecented level of youth and turnover for their program. 3 freshmen started (which basically never happens at Kansas) and a fourth got 16 minutes per game. All 4 eventually made the NBA, and they had larger roles than normal for freshman Jayhawks. But would Kansas have been better off featuring them even more?
Lineup stability
Kansas had a very stable rotation during the 2013-14 season. The starters were usually Naadir Tharpe, Wayne Selden, Andrew Wiggins, Perry Ellis, and either Joel Embiid or Tarik Black. Frank Mason got 3 starts for Tharpe, and Justin Wesley got a Senior Night start in Ellis’ place. But Tharpe/Wiggins/Selden/Ellis/Embiid played 449 possessions and Tharpe/Wiggins/Selden/Ellis/Black played 213; no other lineup got more than 91.
It took a while for Kansas to settle into their preferred lineups, however. In the first 9 games, the Tharpe/Selder/Wiggins/Ellis/Embiid lineup was the most played lineup only twice: Nov 19 vs Iona and Nov 30 vs UTEP. Embiid started for the first time Dec 10 vs Florida, but this lineup only played 3 possessions. But beginning Dec 14 this group was the most played lineup in every game Embiid played for the rest of the season.
The same lineup with Tarik Black in Embiid’s place took even longer to settle in. They played at least 10 possessions in 3 November games, but didn’t play together for 10 possessions again until Feb 4th. They played extended time together the next 2 games, but then didn’t play more than 10 possessions until March 5th when Embiid was ruled out for the season. Over the last 6 gamess of the season this group played 45% of their total possessions for the season.
The favored lineup on the season for Kansas was a very productive one. That Tharpe/Selden/Wiggins/Ellis/Embiid group had an adjusted margin of +34 points per 100 possessions, stronger than the team’s average of +24. Ellis/Embiid lineups were very good all season, as Kansas had an adjusted margin of +38/100 with those two in. But it was one specific lineup with those two that may have been Kansas’ best, and leads me to the focus of this article.
4 Freshmen + Ellis = Dominance
Kansas’ 5 most played lineups were a bit all over the place when it came to results:
Tharpe/Selden/Wiggins/Ellis/Embiid was +92 in 449 possessions, with a +34/100 poss adjusted margin
Tharpe/Selden/Wiggins/Ellis/Black was +18 in 213, with a +17/100
Tharpe/Selden/Wiggins/Ellis/Traylor was -22 in 91m with a -12/100
Tharpe/Selden/Wiggins/Traylor/Embiid was -8 in 77, with a +6/100
Mason/Selden/Wiggins/Ellis/Embiid was +26 in 72, with a +52/100
That 5th lineup featured the four freshmen plus sophomore Perry Ellis, and was dynamite. A couple other lineups with 30-40 possessions played had a better adjusted margin per 100, but no Kansas lineup was better when opponents had 4 or more starters in; the freshmen+ Ellis had a sparkling +43/100 adjusted margin in these minutes.
This group ws only the most-played lineup in 1 game: Dec 10 vs Florida, when they were +3 in 11 possessions in a game Kansas lost by 6 points. They only played 10 possessions in one other game, Dec 30 vs Toledo when they were +7 in 10 possessions. They played at least 1 possession together in 13 games, and they were only outscored in 2 of them.
It seems like Kansas could have used them a bit more heavily…but that was a common theme when it came to freshman-heavy lineups in 2013-14.
Rotation mismanagement without Embiid
For the season, Kansas posted an adjusted margin of +30 points per 100 possessions when playing 3 or more of their freshmen stars together, and +18 when playing 2 or fewer. When opponents had 4 or more starters in, freshmen-heavy lineups had an adjusted margin of +32/100 compared to +18 for other lineups.
Kansas’ coaching staff clearly recognized their freshmen needed big roles. Three of them started, and in nearly every game Kansas played at least 3 together much of the time. excluding the 7 games Joel Embiid missed due to injury, Kansas played 3 or more of their star freshmen together for at least 20 possessions in all but 2 games, and they still got 14 and 19 possessions in those two. One of those was the Nov 28 game vs Wake Forest, where lineups with 3 or more freshmen were +15 in 14 minutes in a game Kansas won by 9 against a bad Wake Forest team. Prior to Embiid’s injury, Kansas had only 5 games all season where they were outscored when 3 or more freshmen were on the court, and one of those was the season opener against Louisiana-Monroe in the debut game for all four.
When Embiid got hurt, however, Kansas pulled back. With only 3 of their start freshmen remaining, Kansas was more hesitant to play all 3 together. In the opening 7 games of the season Mason/Wiggins/Selden played together for 10 or more possesions 5 times, but they did not do so again until Feb 15th when Embiid missed the contest vs TCU. After that, they didn’t all play together until Mar 8 vs West Virginia. I’m not entirely sure why, as those lineups had a lot of success.
With Embiid off the court, lineups with Mason/Selden/Wiggins were +44 in 192 possessions, with a +35/100 adjusted margin. All other Kansas lineups without Embiid were +29 in 1004 possessions with a +13/100 adjusted margin. So, in less than 20% of the time, these lineups made up 60% of the scoring margin vs opponents.
This came back to haunt Kansas in their season-ending stretch without Embiid. Over the final 6 games of the season, Kansas played 57 possessions with Mason/Selden/Wiggins and 330 possessions with other combinations. The Mason/Selden/Wiggins lineups were +12 in 57 possessions, and the rest of the lineups were +11 in 330. This is made worse when you consider that the other lineups were +24 vs Texas Tech; in the final 5 games, these other lineups were -13 as Kansas went 2-3 and flamed out of the conference and NCAA tournaments.
The only 2 games where Mason/Selden/Wiggins were given extended time were March 8 vs West Virginia (29 poss, +12) and March 14 vs Iowa State (17 poss, +2). Kansas lost both of these games due to the minutes given to lineups other than their 3 remaining star freshmen.
During the 2013-14 season Kansas was able to find a lineup that could perform very well, and they were rewarded by giving that lineups the most playing time by far. When managing their rotation outside of this lineup, however, Kansas was far too unwilling to let their supremely talented freshmen have significant time together. When Embiid was lost for the season, the Kansas staff turned to upperclassmen reserve big men instead of letting their young perimeter trio lead them. The result was that Kansas could not keep pace with inferior opponents, and they were sent home far earlier than they needed to be.
In my next article, I’ll look at some of the key elements of Kansas’ offensive and defensive style during the 2013-14 season, what worked, and what didn’t.