2016-17 Gonzaga Bulldogs: Not gorging on cupcakes
A lot of mid-major teams who rise in the rankings get dinged for strength of schedule, but Gonzaga shows up against the best
If you’re a fan of a major conference college basketball team, you’ve likely spent some time in the past 20 years wondering how lauded your team would be playing a West Coast Conference schedule. Would UCLA surpass their own record 88 game wining streak? Would Northwestern make an NCAA Tournament appearance? Would Kansas win infinite conference champio…well, never mind that last one. The gap between a mid-major conference like the West Coast Conference and the big boys (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and Big East) is real. However, that doesn’t mean that a program lording over a mid-major conference has an inferior resume.
This type of shade has been thrown Gonzaga’s way over the years. It was largely undeserved. And in the 2016-17 season, Gonzaga hopefully put it to rest for good by making the title game.
A history of mid-major disappointment
Since Gonzaga first burst onto the national scene with a 1999 Elite Eight run, college basketball has seen mid-major teams aspire to join the elite. None had really done enough to shake the perception that they were less than.
St. Joe’s was undefeated entering the 2004 postseason, lost in their conference tourney, and fell in the Elite Eight. Lost in this narrative is that they fell by two points to a very good Oklahoma State team. Still, they couldn’t shake the doubts about their worthiness. That team had exactly two wins during the regular season against teams in the top 25 per KenPom: a season opening win over Gonzaga, and a regular season win over Xavier (who they lost to in the A-10 tourney). Note to mid-majors, beating OTHER mid-majors is not the way to win over doubters.
Other mid-majors made runs to the Final Four, but always as Cinderellas. 2006 George Mason, 2010 and 2011 Butler, 2011 VCU, 2013 Wichita State….none were any better than a 5 seed. Memphis lost in OT in the title game in 2008 as a 1 seed, but they had the #1 draft pick in Derrick Rose. If anything, that showed that mid-majors couldn’t break through into the ranks of the elite without landing the best talent. Wichita State was undefeated entering the tournament in 2014, and lost in the second round to blue-blood Kentucky.
Heading into the 2016-17 season, it felt like mid-major programs who ranked in the top 10 were more a result of the pollster’s fealty to win-loss record than of any real merit on their part. But for those who were paying close attention, Gonzaga had been doing what they needed to set up a breakthrough.
Gonzaga could handle the big boys
Prior to the 2016-17 season, Gonzaga had made the NCAA Tournament every year since 1999 but had not been a heavyweight in most of those runs. In only 6 of those tournament had the Bulldogs been a top 4 seed, and 3 of those came consecutively in 2004-2006 during the Adam Morrison years. While those 3 season had resulted in exactly 1 Sweet 16, the 2009 Bulldogs made the Sweet 16 as a 4 seed and the 2015 vintage made the Elite 8 as a 2 seed. Gonzaga hadn’t made deep runs as double-digit seeds, but no program can sustain that type of underdog success.
Where Gonzaga had proven themselves, however, was in regular season games against quality teams. The website BartTorvik.com has a neat feature where, for any season going back to 2008, you can view team’s efficiency ratings (similar to KenPom ratings) and filter to just games against Quad 1 teams. For example, in 2013 Gonzaga was 5th in KenPom. Per BartTorvik.com, they were still 4th in you filter to just Quad 1 games. They were 6-3 in those games, including a 25 point destruction of Oklahoma at a neutral site.
In the 2017 season, KenPom had Gonzaga ranked #1 at the end of the season. They began the season in the #22 position, ascended to #1 by late January, and never left. The game that propelled them to #1 was a Gonzaga special…a 31 point win over conference foe Santa Clara. Only 2 teams in their conference were rated better than 110th by KenPom…but this team could hang with anyone.
Gonzaga’s KenPom rating was +32 that season, which is a MONSTER number. Usually the season leader is around +30. Some seasons a team inflates their KenPom rating with blowouts against weak teams, but that wasn’t the case for Gonzaga. Per BartTorvik.com, Gonzaga was actually even better in Quad 1 games. They ranked #1 in those games as well, with a staggering +37 adjusted efficiency margin.
This isn’t typical for all mid-major programs. In the 2017 season, Wichita State was ranked #8 per KenPom, but BartTorvik had them just 34th in Quad 1 games. The Shockers shooting tended to fall off sharply against better teams, as they only posted an eFG% better than 46% in one Quad 1 game. They survived by drawing free throws, but dropped a 2nd round NCAA game against Kentucky when they again struggled to shoot and finally failed to get to the free throw line enough.
So, how did Gonzaga manage to keep up their performance?
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One factor that tends to propel mid-major teams is outside shooting. The 2017 Wichita State team is a good example, as they hit a sizzling 40.2% of their outside shots for the season. This often compensates for a lack of size inside, or for less athleticism to draw free throws. However, when playing against the best programs this outside shooting can be tougher to maintain. First, there is the randomness inherent in outside shooting. Second, if a shooter can’t create his own shot then your offense is dependent on ballhandlers or post players drawing double teams. That happens less and less against better teams. Wichita State had 4 players who hit at least 39% of their threes on more than 1 attempt per game in Landry Shamet, Conner Frankamp, Austin Reaves, and Daishon Smith. However, of those 4 only Shamet had more tricks in his bag. Frankamp, Reaves, and Smith were all rated as Excellent by Synergy on spot ups, but were rated much lower on other play types. Meanwhile, Shamet was rated as Excellent on spot ups, pick and roll ballhandling, off screens, and in hand offs. He was the only one of their 4 shooters who could create offense in multiple ways, and it showed against top teams. In Quad 1 games, Shamet’s shooting fell off to 33% from deep but he maintained low turnover rates and high assist rates to create for others. Meanwhile, the other 3 marksmen on Wichita State hit just 14-49 threes and had 2x as many turnovers as assists. They just couldn’t handle the type of defensive pressure that elite guards threw at them.
Gonzaga had no such problems in 2017. Some of their best spot-ups players, like Nigel Williams-Goss and Josh Perkins, also rated highly in other play types such as isolation and even as post-up threats. Moreover, Gonzaga was unlike other mid majors in that they had good post up players with size in Przemek Karnoswki, Zach Collins, and Johnathan Williams. As a result, Gonzaga was able to keep pace when playing stronger teams. Gonzaga was able to actually improve their offfensive efficiency when playing better teams, in fact! They went from an offensive rating of 117.8 in all games to 122.6 against top 50 competition…that just doesn’t happen for mid majors.
When you’re considering if a mid-major Cinderella is real or a mirage, Bart Torvik’s website is a great resource. Does the team hold up against top competition? Can their scorers be effective against elite defenses? The next time someone tells you a mid-major AINT PLAYED NOBODY, you can check the data for yourself and decide. The 2016-17 Gonzaga Bulldogs showed us the blueprint.